December 22, 2017 EditionEdition

U.S. economic data suggests that the modest economic recovery is likely to continue through at least the end of 2017 and possibly longer. The odds of a full-blown domestic recession over the next 12 to 18 months are low.

Shrinking funding — from state aid to federal tuition and research support — will continue to challenge Connecticut colleges and universities in 2018, requiring them to find new ways to save money and implement new strategies to attract students in an atmosphere of rising tuition and declining enrollment.

There are many industry trends that will affect Connecticut's economy in 2018 leading to slow to moderate growth.

The year 2018 could be a decisive one for the future of Farmington-based UConn Health, according to its CEO Dr. Andrew Agwunobi.

The economic outlook for Connecticut in 2018 appears to be moderately weak, just as it has been in the last several years. The state's reputation for high taxes and as an expensive place to live and work discourages businesses and people from moving in while motivating those who are already in the state — especially the elderly and young professionals — to move out.

You'd never guess it from the headline news of a protracted state budget crisis and exodus of corporate headquarters, but Connecticut reached a jobs milestone in 2017. Even assuming no further job growth in the final months of the year, the average annual private sector job count will top 1,453,000 — a new record for the state. The fact that the state has yet to recover all the jobs lost during the Great Recession reflects drag forces from the public sector, not lack of trying by private enterprise.

Two major changes University of St. Joseph President Rhona Free has made since landing at the school a few years ago will come to fruition in 2018.

Jay Williams became president at the Hartford Foundation for Public Giving in mid-July at a difficult time for the region: the city of Hartford was contemplating bankruptcy, there was a roughly $3.5 billion state budget deficit, and nonprofits were feeling trickle-down funding pressure.

During the first quarter of 2017, Connecticut's economy, as measured by real output or gross state product (GSP), contracted below where it was in 2004. After seven years of contraction from 2008 to 2014, the economy managed a modest 2 percent gain in 2015, only to retreat to essentially zero growth in 2016 and a sharp decline in early 2017.

Developers are jumping onboard a new rail line expanding service between New Haven and Springfield in May, which is an early measure of success for the new CTrail Hartford Line, according to Connecticut Department of Transportation Commissioner James Redeker.

Health care is ever shifting and evolving, but 2018 could bring more uncertainty and change than usual for the industry.

Connecticut opens 2018 with big opportunities and challenges.

Since the end of the Great Recession, Connecticut has experienced slow private-sector job growth and a contracting government sector. These trends will continue in 2018.