Can I imagine him doing the job? Do I like him? Usually, these are the two most important questions voters ask about any candidate for public office. They are especially important when deciding who is going to be president. After all the analysis is done, the campaigning and the get-out-the-vote efforts, the decisions people make in the voting booth are highly personal.
We see it playing out now as Democrats and Republicans jockey for front runner status a year before the first primary. The personalities in the 2008 race offer an interesting contrast of styles that have a direct impact on whether voters will pull a lever for them.
As of today, there’s a three way race for front runner on the Democratic side. Leading the pack is Hillary Clinton, who most people can imagine doing the job. At the same time, they wonder if they could take listening to her for four years. Many admire her, but at least as many find her arrogant, aloof and scary. She lectures us and talks down to us and most of us are just too old for that.
Barack Obama has the opposite problem. People like him, but they are still having trouble imaging him in the job. Yes, he can play the part, but so can Martin Sheen and Geena Davis. As much as we know about Hillary, we know next to nothing about Obama. John Edwards is a likable guy, but soft, maybe too soft for a president leading a country still at war.
Candidates on the Republican side have similar problems. Yes, we can imagine Rudy Giuliani calling in an air strike on Osama bin Laden, but how long could we put up with his New York tough guy routine. We admire John McCain, but he seems to have worn out his welcome.
Mitt Romney is the Obama of the Republican Party. Good looking. Seems likable, but what do we really know about him? Does he just look the part?
Â
Nation Intrigued
A recent NBC News/Wall St. Journal poll said that more than 70 percent of those surveyed are paying close attention to the presidential race — an extraordinarily high number this early. The interest is high because of the war. Voters are looking for someone who can offer a solution.
So the third factor, offering a vision people can relate to, is the tie breaker between personality and perceived competence. In this atmosphere, it would mean a plan to end the war sensibly without leaving Iraq in chaos.
Of the candidates in the field right now, none has put forward a plan that is catching fire with the majority of voters. The war plans run from immediate pullout, to a slow and steady withdrawal based on conditions in 2008.
Fine, but the hedging leaves the voters hungry for something more. There’s a vacuum waiting to be filled by someone sitting on the sidelines, like Newt Gingrich, or someone most of us have never heard of, like Ross Perot in 1992.
The need to project a presidential image and the desire to please as many voters as possible, by coming down in the middle on every issue, is the normal path to nomination and the White House. In 2008, the voters are signaling early those two factors will not be enough.
The high level of voter interest, nearly two years before Election Day, suggests leadership potential will be the most important quality for the next president to project. Looking the part and pandering is not as important as usual. A plan to end the war wins the race.
Â
Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.
