A team of UConn economists and researchers said Wednesday morning that state government must invest in education, transportation and high-speed internet networks to ensure long-term economic job growth.
The Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis released its report in advance of Gov. Dannel P. Malloy’s anticipated budget speech Wednesday — during which Malloy is expected to unveil more details about the state’s financial plan for the coming two fiscal years.
“Serious government belt tightening could severely damage Connecticut’s robust recovery and thwart its opportunity to finally experience sustained employment growth,” CCEA said.
CCEA issued two outlooks for the state’s real gross domestic product for 2014 (which the federal government has not yet calculated), 2015 and 2016.
In a model based on housing permits, Connecticut’s GDP would grow 2.4 percent last year, followed by 4.85 percent growth in both 2015 and 2016. Under that “least spectacular” outlook, the state’s employment base would grow to 1.73 million by the end of 2016. Employment stood at 1.69 million in December, according to labor officials.
A second model, based on gradually accelerating interest rates, produces more optimistic results, with GDP growth of 4.8 percent in 2014, 8.1 percent in 2015 and 3.2 percent in 2016.
CCEA’s researchers said it’s the most optimistic result the model has produced for them to date, but they are skeptical the state has enough excess economic capacity to achieve it.
