After the cheering — or crying — has subsided, it’s time to assess the ancillary winners and losers in the 2012 election:
1) The polling industry took a big hit. Yes, Nate Silver, the independent contractor whose New York Times blog is called 538, nailed all 50 states. He came out smelling like a rose and sales of his book — “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t” — got an 850 percent bump at Amazon.com in the 24 hours after the polls closed. It was vindication of a sort for Silver, who had been trashed by right-leaning media. The complaint was that his methodology is akin to alchemy. Wrong. It’s really excellent use of 21st Century technology and his rivals should take note. The marketplace likely will be less kind to pollsters like Rasmussen, Gallup and the Associated Press who ranked near the bottom of a Fordham study of polling accuracy. Here in Connecticut, was Murphy-McMahon ever really as close as the pollsters made us think? Before the next election cycle, look for big changes embracing methodology that better reflects demographic changes. Now if we can just stop the robo calls.
2) Media punditry also took a hit. It was painful to listen to ‘experts’ assuring that Romney would surpass 300 electoral votes and the constant yammering about how this was the most important election in decades and that the future of the democracy turned on the results. It all ended up sounding like an odd Donald Trump rant when we woke up to the same old congressional stalemate. We’ve drifted a long way toward partisan media and it’s become a large part of the polarization problem. Opinion is fine but don’t ignore the facts.
3) Speaking of facts, truth was a winner. Voters apparently saw through the nasty spin, pandering and outright misrepresentation that marked so much of this year’s political advertising, both local and national. Television and radio stations were among the winners, reaping profits from some of the most expensive politicking in the nation. From a macro perspective, why do we allow the federally regulated airwaves to be sold in this way? Public airwaves; public election event; public service. Why not mandatory allocated public service time for each candidate?
4) The environment is a winner, with an assist from the rule of law. Voters in eight towns signed off on a huge $800 million sewer improvement project, Phase II of $2.1 billion Clean Water Project. That’s a lot of money but the area is under court order to do it so voters signed off. The Metropolitan District will handle the details.
5) Importantly, we’ve eliminated the final speed bump before we come to the so-called fiscal cliff. For Democrats, they still don’t have the votes to do it their way. For Republicans, there’s no more hope that the cavalry is coming over the hill. Does that add up to a mandate to put the American people first and make a reasonable deal that balances budget cuts, new taxes and the programs that matter? We’ll find out quickly now whether it does or if we’re stuck in a loop.
6) And, finally, we’ve cleared the docket so that the gubernatorial campaign can start in earnest. Yes, balloting is still two years away but the budget Gov. Dannel Malloy presents in about 90 days is the one he’ll have to defend. And there’s a whole silly season of candidates announcing, fundraising, strategizing, primaries. Better get started.
And so the cycle begins anew, as depressing as that sounds.
