I have long believed that you can predict the winner in most big elections by imagining the candidates on stage in a debate.
Who presents better? Who can make the better argument? How do they measure up? Which one looks more presidential? It’s not so much what they say; it’s whether and how they handle the pressure.
You might think that George W. Bush would have failed this test against both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, but as it turned out, the American people were not looking for candidates like Gore and Kerry in those contests. In the first instance, they were looking for someone who didn’t remind them of Bill Clinton, and in the second, they had decided to stick with the guy who carried us through one of the most challenging periods in the nation’s recent history.
McCain’s Poor Communication
So, while many of us have spent the last two years trying to figure out who the next president will be based on public opinion polls, primary wins, delegate counts and electoral votes — I have been waiting for debate season. Now we get to size up John McCain and Barack Obama standing side by side.
First, consider McCain. I have been almost completely disappointed by his ability to communicate. Most of the important speeches he has delivered throughout the course of this campaign year could have been written by a junior speech writer cutting and pasting from old speeches Republicans have applauded in the past. I hear no leadership in his words. I only hear a candidate who wants the job because he thinks he can do it marginally better than the current president.
His debate performances against his fellow Republicans were equally unimpressive. He laughs — weirdly I might add — at this own jokes. And some of them aren’t funny. He cloaks his arguments in military jargon as if his distinguished service makes his judgment unassailable.
Obama’s Lack Of Experience
McCain’s main line of attack during the coming debates will be Obama’s lack of experience. Without showing resentment toward his younger and more inexperienced opponent, he might score points by steering the debate in a way that reveals Obama’s lack of knowledge; forcing an error on geography, global politics or U.S. history. He must avoid the appearance that he relishes any Obama slip. And as for his own appearance, he must be vital, not worn out and impatient.
Obama has just the opposite problem. He is so polished and so smooth that he has been described by at least one political observer as “too cool for school.” He is a man who appears to have lived his life as if every moment of it has been broadcast live. Pictures of him from as far back as his college days reveal a young man very aware of how he is being perceived. He is communicating even at rest.
Paying Attention
His political perfection seems precocious. He must convince a large part of the audience that he can do more than just play the part, that he has ideas and they make sense. Although we hope our presidents are capable of deep thought and reason, in the debates Obama needs to show he is capable of making a gut decision and sticking with it. We know McCain can. Obama has displayed a pattern of hesitation.
By now you have heard that the American people only begin paying attention after the conventions, that the campaign doesn’t start until Labor Day and that the real race begins after the World Series. The ultimate decision is based on the final side-by-side comparison at the debates.
Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.
