Scorecard

Here is a quick snapshot of what four Connecticut economists and business professors think will happen to the state’s economy in 2015.

Fred Carstensen

Finance and economics professor, UConn; director of the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis

How many jobs will Connecticut add/lose?    +28,000
What will Connecticut’s unemployment rate be at the end of 2015?     5.8 %
What type of GDP growth/decline will CT see in 2015?    +3.1%
Which industry will add the most jobs?  Construction
Which industry will lose the most jobs?  Manufacturing
 
Major issues that will impact Connecticut’s economy in 2015:
The most important driver will be bioscience. Connecticut has leaped up the rankings in venture capital per capita, from 39th to ninth, largely on the basis of bioscience startups. 
Jackson Laboratory, in collaboration with UConn, has already filed for four biomedical patents, secured more than $14 million in research awards, and has many millions more in the pipeline. JAX is filling its research building so fast that it is already planning a second research facility. 
Yale is also a major contributor, with a strong intellectual property transfer system and multiple spinoffs from Yale research.
The United Technologies Corp. deal has stabilized the aerospace-engineering sector, encouraging companies in the value-chain to expand, and leading to construction of the $450 million Pratt research park. This, with multiple projects in Hartford and other major construction initiatives, will bring vitality to construction for the next few years, well above current patterns. 
The principal threats to achieving moderate-to-strong growth are the continuing stalemate in Washington, resulting in national policies that are manifestly damaging the American economy, and the fragility of the global economy, with serious asset bubbles in China and Europe threatening to create self-imposed recessions.

Susan Coleman

Finance professor, University of Hartford

How many jobs will Connecticut add/lose?  +13,000
What will Connecticut’s unemployment rate be at the end of 2015?  6.3%
What type of GDP growth/decline will CT see in 2015?  +1.3%
Which industry will add the most jobs?  Education/health care
Which industry will lose the most jobs?  Financial
 
Major issues that will impact Connecticut’s economy in 2015:
A number of factors have the potential to impact our state’s economy going forward. The first is the continued overall health of the U.S. economy and its recovery from the lingering effects of the financial crisis and Great Recession. Related to this is the continued strength of the stock market and the financial sector, which employs a significant number of state residents and generates substantial tax revenues.
The prospect of rising interest rates poses a risk, particularly to the housing sector, which has still not fully recovered. Although we all know that higher interest rates are coming, rates have been so low for so long that it will still be a bit of a shock when it finally happens; hopefully not enough of a shock to derail the housing recovery.
Another issue is an anticipated billion-dollar-plus budget deficit for the coming fiscal year, which will necessitate either spending cuts or yet another tax increase. This relates to the larger issue of our state’s ongoing inability to get its fiscal house in order.
Global issues and developments will also have an impact. One concern is that the growing strength of the dollar combined with economic weakness in the Euro zone will have a negative effect on exports and our manufacturing sector. Beyond that, geopolitical instability in the Middle East poses a growing threat.

Steven Lanza

Assistant economics professor in-residence, University of Connecticut

How many jobs will Connecticut add/lose?  +17,000
What will Connecticut’s unemployment rate be at the end of 2015?  5.7%
What type of GDP growth/decline will CT see in 2015?  +2% to 2.5% 
Which industry will add the most jobs?  Accommodation and food services
Which industry will lose the most jobs?  Financial services
 
Major issues that will impact Connecticut’s economy in 2015:
While I expect moderate growth to continue in Connecticut during 2015, the state will still face its share of challenges, not the least of which is making its own ends meet. Latest estimates show a deficit nearing $100 million this year, with $1 billion-$2 billion deficits in each of the next several fiscal years. 
At worst, the expected shortfalls are half what the state faced four years ago when Democrats gained the statehouse and retained the General Assembly, but Republican legislative pickups in this fall’s election should ensure a lively debate next year over public policy options and priorities.
 The U.S. economy is the biggest single driver of Connecticut’s economy, so much of what happens here also depends on how well the rest of the country is doing. 
The good news is that the U.S. economy appears to be picking up steam. Jobs are climbing, output is growing, and oil and gas prices are plummeting, giving consumers the equivalent of a massive tax cut, which should help boost spending among increasingly buoyant households. 
The bad news is that President Obama and Congress are headed on collision courses, our European trading partners are treading water, and Japan is in recession. Exports are as important to Connecticut as to the rest of the nation, so a slowing world economy will stir up headwinds in the Nutmeg State.

Bharat Kolluri

Economics professor, University of Hartford

How many jobs will Connecticut add/lose?  +15,000 
What will Connecticut’s unemployment rate be at the end of 2015?  6.4%
What type of GDP growth/decline will CT see in 2015? +2%
Which industry will add the most jobs?  Health care, information technology services and real estate
Which industry will lose the most jobs?  Some manufacturing sectors

Major issues that will impact Connecticut’s economy in 2015:
Connecticut’s economy will improve although at a slower pace lagging behind the U.S. economy in terms of employment, economic growth and other indicators. The U.S economy seems to be recovering well on its way to pre-Great Recession levels and this will definitely improve the overall economic conditions in Connecticut for businesses and households in 2015. 
Connecticut’s economy will also experience higher cost of living due to higher expected inflation and upward trend in the interest rates of the overall economy. More specifically, the costs of health care, housing and transportation are expected to increase among others. This combination may affect the costs of production and hiring. 
In addition, like many other states, Connecticut may face a shortage of skilled and highly qualified labor.

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