Opinion polls showing Sens. Chris Dodd and Joe Lieberman with approval ratings below fifty percent, and a gut feeling among many potential candidates that Gov. M. Jodi Rell will not run for reelection, has 2010 shaping up as an exciting and pivotal year in Connecticut politics.
On the Democratic side, three candidates have emerged in the race for governor with the determination, ambition and vision to lead a successful challenge to Rell, or any Republican who might take her place. The party is hungry after 20 years being locked out of the state’s top office. Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz, Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy and former House Speaker Jim Amann have all demonstrated an eagerness to run aggressive campaigns. In 2006, John DeStefano’s campaign strategy against Rell was built on a premise that it did no good to attack her. His potential successor nominees will not practice the same restraint.
There is a more interesting story developing below the political radar on the Republican side. For years, the Republican Party in Connecticut has been shrinking in terms of voter registration numbers and perhaps as a result, few Republican candidates have come to be viewed as top tier. The conventional wisdom is that Republicans do not have a deep bench. That view may change in 2010.
In large part, thanks to the success of Ned Lamont and Barack Obama, an entire class of Republican candidates is emerging, inspired by the idea that the right candidate, with the right issue, at the right time, can be propelled from obscurity to the U.S. Senate, the governor’s office, or even the White House.
With respect to the governor’s race, and the state’s constitutional offices (attorney general, comptroller, etc.), Connecticut’s new public campaign finance law is also giving Republicans new hope that they can level the playing field with Democratic candidates and win state races based on ideas and hard work.
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Political Hopefuls
For the first time in a long time, there are Republicans thinking about waging statewide campaigns, not only because they think they have a shot at winning but to position themselves for future campaigns. That’s a healthy approach if the party ever hopes to be relevant. And by the way, it’s something many Democratic operatives hope for too, because it helps them protect their own party from complacency and self-destruction.
In addition to former congressman Christopher Shays and former U.S. Attorney Kevin O’Connor (who don’t seem inclined to run for anything right now), there are at least four other Republicans being talked about as potential candidates in 2010.
Former congressman Rob Simmons is the most well known. He is restless and interested in taking on Dodd, or seeking the gubernatorial nomination if it opens up. Similarly, state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney and House Minority Leader Larry Cafero are eager to have their names mentioned as possible statewide candidates.
A lesser-known name, with a potential issue on his side, is state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, who was the lone senate Republican to vote against the 2007 budget, because he knew it was out of balance and would eventually lead — in part — to the fiscal meltdown we are experiencing now. That vote (which angered some of his colleagues) could be the equivalent of Obama’s speech against the invasion of Iraq in a campaign for the nomination for governor.
Despite minority status and the lack of candidates seen as political stars, Republicans see 2010 as their best chance to change Connecticut’s political landscape in a long time. The question is no longer whether to run. There is a sense the pendulum is swinging their way.
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Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.
