Richard Blumenthal may be the best governor Connecticut will ever have, but before we just hand him the job, let’s make him work for it.
He is perhaps the most active attorney general in Connecticut history. He is ubiquitous. Yet what he does is a mystery to many, in fact, it is hard to discern whether the frenzied activity actually creates any results. He is the most well known riddle in Connecticut politics.
I was shocked recently, when I heard long time radio talk show host Brad Davis declare Blumenthal the winner of the 2010 race for governor and throw his support behind him. Brad’s early support redefines the term, “getting on the train early.”
Although Blumenthal has had many opportunities to run for governor, he never has. The conventional wisdom is; he would rather be a U.S. senator, but the wait for Lieberman and Dodd to step aside has been too long and now he is ready to throw his hat in the ring, in a year that is expected to bring an open race on both sides.
Conventional wisdom also says that there are no top-tier candidates on the Democratic side who would stand in Blumenthal’s way to the nomination and on the Republican side, there’s no bench – never mind a top tier.
But having said all that there are at least two factors that are not being considered. The first is: how would Connecticut’s political elite and business community react to a Blumenthal candidacy? There are Democrats and Republicans, who are politically active at all levels of government, who make things happen regardless of who is in power. Like the business establishment, they tend to prefer stability over activism. Would they support a candidate for governor who has built a reputation as an attorney general willing to sue anything that moves? That approach, in the governor’s office, might be bad for business. And although public financing will make it more difficult for them to have a direct impact, this loosely defined community of power brokers will always find a way to make a difference. That’s what they do.
The matter of the new public campaign finance law, which may still be in effect in 2010, is another piece of the puzzle few have taken the time to consider. Under the law (which is being challenged) qualifying candidates for governor can access just over $1 million to wage a primary campaign and $3 million for a general election campaign. This could have a dramatic leveling effect on the race.
Richard Blumenthal, with his huge name I.D. and high job-performance ratings, would still have a distinct advantage over any Republican currently considering a run, but it would not be the same advantage Jodi Rell enjoyed over John DeStefano.
Blurred Vision
A Republican with a strong platform, a vision, and a willingness to work as hard as Blumenthal could make it a race. While there is no doubt Blumenthal is everywhere and involved in almost every issue, it is difficult to figure out what his leadership vision for Connecticut is. That might be a weakness that a challenger, starting with a blank slate, could exploit.
Time is the final factor that could change everything. Today the race may seem clear to people like Davis and others, but with more than three years to go before the next gubernatorial election we are not seeing the full picture. Is there another Ned Lamont out there who wants to be governor? Will some unforeseen event catapult another candidate into the top tier?
Gov. Blumenthal may be inevitable, but not yet. We still get to have a say.
Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.
