New Yorkers Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Rodham Clinton hold commanding leads on their home turf and are poised to sweep tri-state presidential primaries in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut on Feb. 5, a new poll shows.
A Quinnipiac University poll indicates the two leading contenders could pick up significant numbers of tri-state delegates for their respective party conventions.
Twenty states are holding presidential primaries Feb. 5, which could determine each party’s nominee historically early in the process.
Giuliani and Clinton “can count on their Northeast neighbors to give them an early bumper crop of delegates,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Giuliani, a former New York City mayor, has three times the support of his nearest competitors, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and Arizona Sen. John McCain, for the Republican nomination in all three states, according to the poll.
Giuliani leads Thompson, 45 percent to 12 percent in New York and 48-12 in New Jersey, and he tops McCain, 42-14, in Connecticut, according to the poll, which surveyed voters simultaneously in the three states.
“Connecticut’s a blue state and he’s showing he can put this blue state into play for Republicans,” said Poll Director Douglas Schwartz.
In New York, McCain is third with 9 percent. In New Jersey, he ties for third with 12 percent, and in Connecticut Thompson is third with 10 percent.
With the Republicans’ winner-take-all primary rules, Giuliani could win all 183 tri-state delegates, giving him 15 percent of the 1,228 he needs to secure the nomination.
Clinton also enjoys wide leads in the three states. More than twice as many voters polled support her as her closest Democratic competitor, Ill. Sen. Barack Obama.
The New York senator leads Obama 49 percent to 12 percent in New York, 46-20 in New Jersey and 43-16 in Connecticut, according to the poll.
“We have seen significant changes here in Connecticut. She has opened up her lead,” said Schwartz, pointing to the May 10 poll where Clinton garnered support from 28 percent of registered Democrats in Connecticut.
In New York, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is third with 11 percent. In New Jersey, he is third with 9 percent, and in Connecticut he runs third with 8 percent, just ahead of the state’s senior senator, Christopher Dodd, with 7 percent.
Because Democrats allocate primary votes proportionally, Obama and Edwards could win some tri-state delegates. But the survey indicates that Clinton could win more than half the 468 delegates at stake, giving her 250 of the 2,181 she’d need for the Democratic nomination.
In a theoretical head-to-head matchup between the Republican and Democratic front-runners, Clinton trumps Giuliani in New York, 50 percent to 36 percent. But the matchup between them in both Connecticut and New Jersey is a statistical tie, according to the poll.
The telephone poll, taken Oct. 9-15, surveyed 1,063 New York voters with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey included 316 New York Republicans with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points and 468 Democrats with an error margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. In New Jersey, 1,004 voters were surveyed with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey included 301 Republicans, with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points, and 343 Democrats, at plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. In Connecticut, 1,391 voters were polled with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, including 325 Republicans, at plus or minus 5.5 percentage points, and 530 Democrats, at plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
