In the all-important battle for political advertising revenue, WFSB Channel 3 is the clear winner so far in this year’s governor’s race, outpacing the state’s two other Hartford area TV networks by more than $2 million in gross revenues, according to a recent review of Federal Communications Commission (FCC) data by the Hartford Business Journal.
As of Sept. 21, WFSB Channel 3 has booked nearly $3.3 million in advertising revenue related to the governor’s race. That compares to $466,000 in gross billings at WTIC (Fox CT) and $824,000 at WVIT (NBC Connecticut). Overall, $4.6 million has been booked on the three stations.
The win for WFSB isn’t a huge surprise, given its position as the market’s ratings leader. And while the revenue totals are impressive this far into the campaign, they aren’t nearly as high as other recent election seasons. Campaign watchers say they expect political ad spending to be down this year, unless cash-rich political action committees and other third-parties swoop in at the last minute to try to sway voter opinion in what is expected to be a close race.
Democratic incumbent Dannel P. Malloy has made a more aggressive advertising push, having booked $1.7 million in advertising on the three Hartford area stations as of Sept. 21, FCC records show. That compares to the $1 million Republican candidate Tom Foley has booked. The third candidate on the ballot — Joe Visconti, a Tea Party Republican — had not reserved any network advertising space as of Sept. 1.
The fact that Malloy is so far ahead of Foley in terms of local TV ad spending is particularly noteworthy because Foley had to spend relatively aggressively to fight his Republican primary opponent, John McKinney. Malloy, on the other hand, had no primary fight, allowing him to save the majority of his TV ad budget for the main contest this November.
Overall, however, TV advertising spending this year is expected to be down from recent election seasons, said Gary Capreol, senior vice president of media and analytics at Glastonbury-based advertising firm Cronin & Co.
“Right now [the election] is not affecting anything that we’re doing,” Capreol said. That’s in contrast to recent years, particularly when WWE executive Linda McMahon spent tens of millions of her own cash in her unsuccessful U.S. Senate bids in 2010 and 2012. Absent a wealthy multi-millionaire willing to spend a personal fortune on TV ads, campaign commercials won’t provide as big of a cash infusion TV stations have been used to in recent years. The ad space for Cronin & Co. clients, for example, hasn’t been encroached upon this year, Capreol said. In extremely competitive election years, political campaigns can sometimes elbow out other advertisers.
There is, however, an important wild card that may come into play as Election Day nears, Capreol added.
“It’s the PAC money that’s the question,” Capreol said, referring to the Political Action Committee (PAC) funds that have suddenly been injected into the governor’s race and 5th District Congressional campaign between Democrat incumbent Elizabeth Esty and Republican Mark Greenberg.
Outsiders
So far, there are two main third-party interest groups that have reserved airtime on local Hartford networks in relation to the Malloy-Foley matchup. They are Connecticut Forward, which has received funding from the Democratic Governor’s Association, and Grow Connecticut, which has received money from the Republican Governor’s Association.
WFSB has been the main beneficiary of that spending. CT Forward has booked nearly $1.2 million in airtime on that station, while Grow CT has booked $623,000.
The other third-party interest groups that are buying up local airtime include the Democratic Congressional Campaign and the House Majority PAC. These two national players have bought up $376,000 and $450,000 respectively.
Third-party groups are playing more of a role this year because of changes in Connecticut’s election laws, according to Cheri Quickmire, executive director of Common Cause in Connecticut, a nonprofit that pushes for strong campaign finance laws.
Both Malloy and Foley are receiving $6.5 million in public financing from the Connecticut Citizens’ Election Program (Foley received an additional $1.35 million for his primary campaign). As a condition to receiving that public money, candidates can’t accept political donations above $100. The rules also limit campaign contributions from state contractors.
By contrast, Political Action Committees (PACS) or other independent organizations, known as 527 groups (a reference to the Internal Revenue Service rule that regulates them) have no such donor restrictions. That means PACs can receive more large-dollar donations and spend more freely.
That could be one reason why key Connecticut business executives, who typically contribute to gubernatorial candidates, are largely missing this year from Malloy/Foley campaign contribution reports. Where that big business money may be flowing, however, is toward third-parties and PACS.
There may be more third-party groups that throw money into the race closer to Election Day, Quickmire said. That happened in 2012, for example, when Greenwich businessman Thomas Peterffy, who founded Interactive Brokers Group, “spent all sorts of money” in the presidential race, buying up airtime “at the very last minute” to attack candidates he felt weren’t conservative enough, Quickmire said.
Attack mode
Meantime, the political messaging in this year’s governor’s race is relentless and negative, said Gary L. Rose, a political science professor at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield.
“It’s going to be absolutely wearing on people,” predicted Rose, adding that Foley and Malloy are going to use their TV ads “to define [each] other.”
Another factor driving TV ad spending will be the closeness of the Malloy-Foley matchup. A Sept. 10 Quinnipiac poll gave Foley a 6 percentage point lead over Malloy, while a recent Internet poll by YouGov gave Malloy a 1 percentage point advantage.
The challenge for Malloy, said Rose, is that his “approval ratings are so low” and that he’s particularly vulnerable on taxes, jobs and economic growth, which are major issues in this year’s election.
Another factor hurting Malloy is that it’s a mid-term, or non-presidential, election year.
“There’s no Barack Obama at the very top of the ticket,” Rose said. “The turnout is probably going to be lower, whiter, older and slightly more male.”
