The governor’s budget office said Thursday that it is assuming an $800,000 surplus from operations for the fiscal year that began July 1, but noted several trends that bear watching.
The Office of Policy Management’s estimate — its first of fiscal year 2016 — assumes for now that revenues and expenditures in the recently approved state budget will be accurate.
But OPM Secretary Benjamin Barnes noted in a letter to Comptroller Kevin Lembo that revenue from licenses, permits and fees fell below expectations last fiscal year, and said the trend is likely to continue this year.
Keno, which is going to be rolled out this year, also bears watching, Barnes said.
On the expense side, he predicted that agency managers will be challenged to meet aggressive savings targets, or “lapse assumptions,” included in the budget.
OPM is one of several agencies that estimate the state’s fiscal position each month. Lembo’s office typically issues forecasts at the start of each month. The nonpartisan Office of Fiscal Analysis is the third agency that forecasts deficits and surpluses.
The state closed a nearly $116 million deficit in the recently concluded fiscal year using rainy day funds.
