“Uncharted — How to Navigate the Future” by Margaret Heffernan (Avid Reader Press, $30).“Prediction addiction” (n.) — relying on internal/external forecasts, opinions of “experts” and polls to drive decision-making. In the book’s introduction, Heffernan points out that predictions are based on what’s known at a point in time while the real future “lies beyond prediction […]
“Uncharted — How to Navigate the Future” by Margaret Heffernan (Avid Reader Press, $30).
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“Prediction addiction” (n.) — relying on internal/external forecasts, opinions of “experts” and polls to drive decision-making. In the book’s introduction, Heffernan points out that predictions are based on what’s known at a point in time while the real future “lies beyond prediction or influence.” Example: No one predicted a global pandemic. Think of COVID-19’s long-tail economic effects. Jobs, time and money have been lost; supply chains have been disrupted. It’ll take time and patience to rebuild.
When unpredictability throws the planned future out the window, a business’s survival requires answering these three questions: 1. “What can we do right now?” 2. “What do we need to be right now?” 3. “What must we preserve at all cost?”
To answer them, “Go Fast, Go Far” — one step at a time. Step 1: Employ scenario planning. Have your team develop scenarios of what the future of the business may look like based upon changes occurring in the work environment and market today. Develop your baseline by identifying the common threads in actions and expected outcomes of the scenarios. Then apply what-if, if-then and so-what analysis to “highlight options and alternatives” that use the most valuable common-thread actions, resources and timelines.
Whittle down the alternatives through a team discussion of what’s necessary and what’s possible, which shows the team how success depends upon teamwork. Decide on the path forward.
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Step 2: “Think like an artist” with a blank page/canvas. What story does your team want to tell and sell to those on the frontline of “making it happen.” “Observations, details, themes, experience coalesce into a starting point.” Also, understand that you’re trying to sell tomorrow to an audience worried about uncertainty today. Welcoming their input throughout the process helps alert you to blind spots and/or “what you might not expect.” It also increases commitment to the new plan.
Takeaway: Frame your senior team’s mindset by having them read the book and discuss it before answering the three questions.
