Mohegan warns of prediction market threat amid tepid Q1 financial results

The Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority is backing state efforts to crack down on prediction market operators that executives say are illegally encroaching on the tribes’ exclusive gaming rights, as the casino operator reported a first-quarter profit buoyed by a one-time accounting gain.

During an earnings call Thursday, Mohegan Chief Financial Officer Ari Glazer said his casino and Foxwoods are working with Connecticut officials to halt what he called unlicensed gambling on platforms that offer wagers on sports outcomes.

“I think the two Connecticut-based Native American tribes have exclusivity on all forms of gaming in Connecticut, and we are actively working with all of the Connecticut constituents and regulators and government to ensure that that is the case,” Glazer said.

The state has taken the lead on enforcement, with the Department of Consumer Protection’s Gaming Division sending cease-and-desist letters in December to prediction market platforms KalshiEX LLC, Robinhood Derivatives LLC and Crypto.com. The letters ordered them to stop offering illegal sports wagers in Connecticut.

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In a written statement, the tribe said it supports the state’s enforcement efforts.

“The Mohegan Tribe deeply values our longstanding partnership with the State of Connecticut, which, through our tribal compact, has contributed billions in revenue and established a stable, regulated gaming market which prioritizes consumer protection and industry integrity,” the tribe said. “We stand with Attorney General Tong and the State of Connecticut in their litigation against predictive markets to ensure full compliance with state law and the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.”

The prediction market platforms allow users to buy and sell contracts based on whether specific events will occur — such as which team will win a game — but characterize them as prediction markets rather than sports betting.

Gov. Ned Lamont has also proposed legislation (House Bill 5038) that would prohibit prediction market platforms from allowing use by or advertising to minors under 21, with civil penalties of up to $50,000 for violations. The bill also calls for a study by the Department of Consumer Protection, in consultation with the attorney general and the two tribes, on the effects of prediction markets on problem gambling and revenue to the state’s licensed gaming operators.

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The prediction market concerns emerged as Mohegan reported a first-quarter profit driven largely by a one-time accounting gain.

For the quarter that ended Dec. 31, Mohegan reported net income of $108.5 million, compared with a net loss of $85.9 million a year earlier. But the profit was driven almost entirely by a $102 million non-cash accounting gain related to discontinued operations in South Korea, where Bain Capital seized control of Mohegan INSPIRE last February after the project failed to meet projections.

Excluding that one-time gain, Mohegan’s first-quarter revenue was essentially flat and operating cash flow remained minimal.

Kim Noland, a high-yield analyst at Gimme Credit who covers Mohegan, said the company’s core properties continue to face performance pressures.

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“The company’s flagship Mohegan Sun Connecticut and the Poconos Pennsylvania casino both continue to report lackluster operations in the first fiscal quarter,” Noland wrote in a research note, characterizing the quarter’s results as “uninspiring.”

Domestic resort revenue fell 3.9% to $300 million. The decline was driven by fewer arena events and difficult comparisons to the prior year, when Mohegan Sun achieved its highest-ever gross table hold.

One bright spot was Mohegan Digital — the company’s online gaming and sports betting division — which reported a 35.9% increase in revenue to a quarterly record of $72.2 million. Connecticut operations were the primary growth driver, with gross gaming revenue rising 33.5%.

Noland noted that Mohegan has some breathing room following a recent debt restructuring.

“Because some Mohegan bondholders not long ago agreed to restructure their debt, the company has a ‘runway’ to use cash flow from its bricks and mortar operations and the Digital unit to reduce debt and regain financial stability,” she wrote.

She attributed the operational weakness to “a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, secondary tariff effects on consumers and nearby competition.”

The quarter was Mohegan’s first since former CEO Ray Pineault stepped down Dec. 28 after nearly 25 years with the tribe. Mohegan’s management board is overseeing operations during the leadership transition, according to Tribal Council Treasurer Thayne D. Hutchins Jr., but a new CEO has not yet been named.

During the earnings call, officials said — in response to a question about the status of Mohegan’s WNBA team, the Connecticut Sun — that the team will play its 2026 season in Connecticut, but they had no additional updates.