At a time when cynicism about the state’s budget is mounting, it’s hard not to admire Gov. Dannel Malloy’s resolve and his confidence.
Rather than hedge his bet, he repeated his challenge to legislators to pass his budget plan — complete with the $2 billion savings yet to be realized from negotiations with the state’s employee unions — and “blame me” if it goes wrong.
That was a good line when he floated it in January. The bumps and bruises of the ensuing weeks have provided both reason and opportunity for the governor to soften his stand, to lower expectations. He hasn’t done that. If anything, he’s raised expectations. Unless he is confident he’s close to a ground-shifting deal with labor, why would a seemingly sharp politician with upward aspirations gamble it all on what seems a longshot?
The stakes are high. Malloy has stressed he won’t resort to the kind of smoke and mirrors his predecessors used to balance the budget. He’s ruled out buyouts and borrowing. He’s learned first-hand that the federal government won’t be riding to the rescue this time. He’s been clear that he’s committed to maintaining the state’s social service safety net.
All of that posturing has left him with a tiny spot on which to stand, much like a painter nearing the end of work on a floor. The question that remains is whether Malloy has masterfully worked his way to a safe exit or painted himself into a devilish corner.
Republican howling about the constitutional absurdity of delegating budget-cutting power to a single appointee, no matter how skilled and well intended, is political rhetoric now. But if the worst case develops, the result is likely to plunge us all into one horrific legal snarl.
Yet here we stand, a heartbeat away from Office of Policy Management Secretary Ben Barnes opening a trap door under a variety of approved programs and casting thousands of state employees into the abyss, perhaps taking the fragile economic upturn with them.
That’s just ghastly a mess to contemplate. Yet it seems clear Malloy has contemplated it, then told the Democratic majority, in effect, to “trust me.” And they have, without the least bit of evidence Malloy can produce that $2 billion giveback.
So what is a rational observer to conclude? The only way this makes sense is that one day soon, Malloy and leaders of the state employee unions will pull a rabbit from the hat. What form that could be is anybody’s guess — maybe a small wage rollback, an end to longevity payments, a shift in pension calculations, a higher employee contribution to health insurance costs, or all of the above and more. It wouldn’t be the first time unions agreed to givebacks to avoid layoffs but it would be unusual to say the least.
The telltale hint may be in the tight lid both sides have kept on the negotiations. Yes, Malloy has been doing the obligatory planning for layoffs but it feels more like a bargaining strategy to let those on the outside know he’s serious.
Those on the inside already know how serious he is and haven’t breached the secrecy. They haven’t tried to rally their members beyond the customary May Day events. There have been no trial balloons to see what rank-and-file might accept. And in doing so, they seem to have accepted as big a stake in delivering a satisfactory ending as Malloy. Their careers, like Malloy’s, depend on it.
For business, all of that falls into the category of “important if true.” The pain of the tax hikes will only be worthwhile if Connecticut truly can put its financial house in order.
That’s a neat trick and we’ve all been given front-row tickets to Malloy the Magician’s big performance.
