Q&A talks about the world to come with demographer, futurist and author Ken Gronbach of Haddam.
Q: Last year in an interview with the Hartford Business Journal (http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/news15938.html), you said manufacturing is poised to make a comeback in Connecticut, not necessarily in a year or two, but in the future. You still holding to that belief?
A: Absolutely, there is more and more evidence that manufacturing is making a comeback in Connecticut. For example we have a shortage of skilled labor. You don’t have a shortage of skilled labor if they are not in demand.
Q: You talk about Generation Y becoming entrepreneurs. What does that mean for Connecticut? Is the population going to be in place to handle an uptick in manufacturing jobs?
A: Generation Y will become entrepreneurs out of necessity, the mother of invention. Generation Y is facing 50 percent unemployment as they enter the labor market. The ones that don’t get hired still have to eat and they won’t be able to live at home forever. In addition, decent paying manufacturing jobs are going unfilled. How long do you think it will be before Generation Y figures out the paradigm shift and gets the training necessary to land a good paying manufacturing job? Connecticut has an abundance of Generation Y kids. This bodes well for the state.
Q: Your perception of Generation Y differs from the common-held beliefs. 2012 seems like a prime time for Gen Y to break out. What can Connecticut employers expect?
A: The big story will be the employer’s market. Connecticut employers will have their pick of the best and brightest young workers from the biggest selection in 20 years. The hungry Generation Y kids will bring a new dynamic to the workplace and put pressure on the small entitled Generation X, now 27 to 46 years olds. The message from Generation Y to Generation X is “perform or get out of the way.” Boomers in the workplace will love and identify with the spunky Generation Y workers. Boomers are 47 to 66 years old.
Q: There’s an interview with you on your blog where you say, “Generation X did not opt for the technical careers that the Boomers did, like factory work, electricians, plumbers.” You predict factory work is coming back. What about the electrical and plumbing trades? Is Generation Y going into them in sufficient numbers?
A: Vacancies in the technical trades spell opportunity. The trades are dominated by Boomers who are thinking about retirement and leaving the workforce at the rate of about one every eight seconds. You will not be able to hide this opportunity from the huge Generation Y.
Q: That same interview has another interesting observation, “If you want to go experience Italy, you’ve got to go now, because in 10 years you won’t be able to experience Italy. France is feeling it big time. The problem is that they forgot to have kids. Remember that people precipitate economics, not the other way around. Without people, you don’t have anything.” What part of the world is populating itself correctly?
A: 2.2 kids per couple is a magic number. It is called replacement level fertility. When you fall below this number you risk not having enough heavy lifters (taxpayers) to provide for the young and the elderly in 40 to 50 years. The European Union, Eastern Europe and all of Asia are demographic time bombs because they fell below and stayed below replacement level fertility for over 30 years and counting. Africa, India and the Middle East all have their own demographic issues. The United States and most of the Americas are doing it right. Australia is a poster child for healthy demographics.
Q: Let’s take more a micro-look. How is Connecticut handling its population growth? How are the Millenials going to do when it comes time to follow Gen Y? What’s going right?
A: Connecticut has a shortage of Generation X. They went away to school and stayed there. Connecticut has an abundance of Generation Y. The average age we marry for the first time in the United States is 26 years old. Generation Y will start to marry with a vengeance and stay here in Connecticut. This will coincide with an improved housing market, a commensurate drop in unemployment and the return of a vibrant state-wide economy.
