Despite all her strengths, Hillary Clinton has her weaknesses as well. Some are hers alone and some are part of the baggage that is the memory of her husband’s time in the White House.
In late September, a mini-wave of pollsters, news stories and opinion columns declared Sen. Clinton the inevitable Democratic nominee in 2008. She pulled away from Barack Obama and John Edwards in the horse race polls, and the Republican candidates for president started focusing their attacks on her instead of each other, sure signs of a secure front runner.
But being the front runner or the nominee is a long way from being president, even though the odds are on her side. The odds favor her primarily because of the war in Iraq and the desire by many voters to put George W. Bush in the rear view mirror as quickly as possible. For many, doing so means distancing themselves from the Republican Party, too, and that means voting against whoever emerges as that party’s nominee.
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Dem’s Chance
So 2008, as it appears today, is a year for Democrats to regain the White House. Sen. Clinton could be the one to close the deal, or the very idea of her taking the oath could be the one thing blocking her party’s return to power. Lingering negative feelings toward her husband and doubts about her own changeable personality may be the most important factors to follow as the race unfolds. The fear of past as prologue may be her toughest opponent.
Former Sen. Edwards, the candidate securely in third place on the Democratic side, has been the most vocal with the opinion that Hillary is un-electable and therefore must be denied the nomination. He doesn’t bother to say why she is un-electable because he figures we all know.
Topping the list is the former president who has successfully won his campaign to become a new saint of the Democratic Party, but for many non-Democrats brings back painful memories of a tumultuous eight years that included endless scandal and investigation, an impeachment process, a government shutdown, the vast right wing conspiracy, the little blue dress and all the rest. As the campaign intensifies — after the party nominating conventions — will the country come down with another case of Clinton fatigue?
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Hillary’s History
The next problem facing Senator Clinton on the road back to the White House is her own history, her personality and style. Although she has moderated her image in recent months, she still has a tendency to come off as harsh, cold and manipulative. Not in a sneaky way — but in a way that is very direct. Her style can be viewed as tough, but it can also be seen as arrogant. A reminder of the past and in some ways a reminder of the very team she is trying to replace in the current White House.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, even the front runners have their negatives. Romney is too smooth, Giuliani is too gruff, McCain is past his prime, and Thompson is too laid back. If Sen. Clinton is the inevitable nominee, then only she will be in a position to thrust a lackluster Republican candidate over all the barriers and into the Oval Office.
More than in any recent presidential election, the poll numbers to watch in 2008 are not the horse race numbers, but Clinton’s own negative ratings. They will tell us whether the American voter has recovered from Clinton fatigue and is willing to believe the woman who has reinvented herself so many times, to survive life with Bill, is the real thing this time.
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Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.
