Investors seeking succor from widespread predictions of a recession in 2020 could take heart from Quinnipiac University’s ninth annual Global Asset Management Education (GAME) Forum in New York City last Thursday.
Participating panelists on the first day of the forum shared in their acknowledgement of global stability challenges, but also agreement that those challenges were unlikely to put the brakes on the surging U.S. economy.
Quinnipiac President Judy Olian enumerated a list of potential economic disruptors that included Brexit, trade wars and cybersecurity threats.
“I can’t remember a time in the last 50 years when there were so many global conflicts at one time,” added panelist Ralph Acampora, senior managing director at Altaira Capital Partners. He added government shutdowns to the list.
Douglas Coté, chief market strategist and senior portfolio manager at Voya Investment Management, described the current turbulence as “the storm before the calm” and predicted a continued strong economy.
“The fundamentals are solid, and I expect the bull market to continue,” Coté said, citing “stellar” corporate earnings, low unemployment, a robust manufacturing sector and American energy dominance.
Abby Joseph Cohen, senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, said the Trump administration’s federal tax cuts were “poorly implemented” because they didn’t result in a significant rise in corporate capital spending or R&D. A rising deficit remains a problem, she said. Another danger sign is slowing exports: “The trade wars are not helping,” Cohen said. But she also cited strong fundamentals, including unemployment trending down and wages moving up.
David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, predicted a modest slowing of U.S. economic growth but said worrisome inflation “is not on the horizon.” He agreed with Cohen that the U.S. tax cuts had not helped the U.S. economy as much as intended, but added that the market outlook is positive overall. A danger sign, he said, is rising income inequality.
The GAME conference attracted 1,500 participants from 154 colleges, 50 countries and 48 states.
Contact Michael C. Bingham at mbingham@newhavenbiz.com
