Store owners know that not everyone who crosses their threshold will buy something. Business executives know there’s a big difference between gross revenue and net revenue.
And college presidents are keenly aware that a spike in admission applications doesn’t mean they’re necessarily going to see more students in the fall.
Colleges throughout Greater Hartford say their admissions offices are operating at full tilt. But most discount the rise in applications because they know that one big factor in the applications surge is that students simply apply to more schools.
And more applications don’t do the schools much good if they don’t have enough room to accommodate more students than they already have.
“Across the country, there’s a recognition that applying to college is a very competitive period,” said Valerie Lewis, Connecticut commissioner of Higher Education. A student’s chances improve with each application he or she sends out, and more are hedging their bets.
That’s why admissions officers at local colleges say applications are up. Way up.
The college admissions game is a bit of a gamble. Admissions directors analyze numbers and patterns, but in the end, how many students say “yes” to their acceptance letters is more a matter of luck than exact science.
A significant spike in applications has added more variables to the equation. The uninformed might assume that more applications means more interested students and possibly bigger freshman classes, but not so: Directors say a major factor is that students, driven by competition, are simply applying at more schools.
No measly increases, these: An 11 percent jump in applications for Trinity College in Hartford. About 6.6 percent for the University of Connecticut. East Hartford-based Goodwin College is up by 35 percent, and Saint Joseph’s admissions office in West Hartford is dealing with double last year’s amount.
Common App
But stiff competition for college entrance has been the norm for years – why the sudden boom in 2007?
“Technology is definitely a factor,” said Christine Looby, director of college relations for Saint Joseph’s in West Hartford. Schools are using their Web sites and e-mail to aggressively recruit, and students themselves can apply online, she said.
Instead of the paper piles of yesteryear, students are clicking their way to more applications. Reggie Kennedy, senior associate dean of admissions for Trinity College, cited Common App, a Web-based program that allows students to apply to multiple colleges online by filling out one main application.
“One or two more clicks means one or two more applications,” Kennedy said, and Trinity’s membership to Common App likely helped fuel its increase from 5,300 applications last year to 5,900 so far in 2007.
High School Musical Chairs
But there’s some substance to the application spike, too: Connecticut and the northeast simply have more students coming out of their high schools.
The National Center for Education Statistics shows Connecticut’s public high school senior classes growing from 36,320 last year to 37,330 this year. Next year, that number will likely be 38, 310, and classes in other northeastern states follow a similar pattern.
Even so, college campuses can’t bank on a rising tide of new students – the bumper crop of high schoolers won’t last. After 2008, the numbers will slope downward, slightly but almost continuously, at least until 2016.
The University of Connecticut is seeing increased applications for this year – from 20,996 last year to 22,020 so far in 2007 – but it’s had steady increases in enrollment for more than a decade now, said spokeswoman Karen Grava. The admissions office has responded by limiting enrollment for its main campus, but it’s also expanded regional campuses to handle the heavier load.
UConn, she stated, “has become a very hot school.”
Goodwin College, by contrast, is expecting more freshmen in the coming years, and not just because it has seen more applications.
Kara Simmers, college communications coordinator, said the school is hiring extra faculty, holding seminars for high schoolers and promoting its newer programs to try and snag students to fill its upcoming new campus on the Connecticut River.
But the college, which features many vocational and technical programs, also draws many older students. The average age of Goodwin students, for example, is about 31 or 32 years old, Simmers said.
“We’re doing everything we can to expand,” she said.
While Goodwin is predicting higher enrollment numbers, Trinity College expects its freshman classes to be on an even keel for fall 2007, Kennedy said.
For them, it’s a matter of sifting through ever-higher stacks of applications and taking a stab at how many students will arrive for the next semester.
“It’s like throwing a party – you’re not sure who’s going to show up.”
