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Fiscal ’17 budget forecast improves but deficit still projected

The state Office of Policy and Management has improved its budget shortfall projections to $41.6 million for fiscal 2016-17, compared with $67.8 million reported a month ago.

The improvement is due to savings in the judicial branch and in fringe benefit costs, according to OPM Secretary Benjamin Barnes.

The information is detailed in a Dec. 20 letter and analysis from Barnes to Comptroller Kevin Lembo.

Lembo on Dec. 1 projected a fiscal 2017 deficit of $82.3 million, but noted the largest potential offset from tax collections are due in the next two months, so it remains a work in progress. Taxes and other revenues typically do not come in until the second half of the fiscal year and are heaviest in April, Barnes said.

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On the expenditures side, the biggest shortfalls are an anticipated $12 million for debt service in the state treasurer’s office; $10.8 million in the Office of Early Childhood; and $2.2 million in the Department of Corrections for workers’ compensation claims trending above budgeted levels.

The next forecast is due on or before Jan. 17.

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