Connecticut likely gained as many as 2,000 jobs in December, according to economist Donald Klepper-Smith, who shared his economic assessment Friday with the Connecticut Society of Certified Public Accountants.
Although the state’s official employment numbers aren’t due out until Monday, Smith, who is the chief economist at Data-Core Partners in New Haven, said based on the national employment trends Connecticut likely added between 1,000 to 2,000 jobs last month.
Nationally, the U.S. added about 103,000 jobs in December, lowering the unemployment rate to 9.4 percent, its lowest level in 19 months.
If Smith’s assessment proves accurate, that would mean Connecticut added private-sector jobs for three consecutive months, a further sign of positive momentum for the state’s economy.
Connecticut added 2,500 jobs in November, helping to slightly push down the state’s unemployment rate to 9 percent.
But even those job increases don’t mean Connecticut is on its way to a robust recovery, Klepper-Smith said.
In fact, it is taking Connecticut longer to get back jobs lost from this recession, than any other recent downturn. And in one pessimistic scenario, Connecticut may not fully recover until 2019, Klepper-Smith said.
And the slow slog isn’t just a result of the recession.
Klepper-Smith said a portion of the job losses experienced in Connecticut-and the reason the recovery has been painfully slow-are structural in nature and not related the business cycle. In particular he said it’s a result of the state’s poor business climate, especially the high cost of doing business in Connecticut.
“If we are going to create jobs we have to cut taxes first before tax increases,” Klepper-Smith said.
In terms of the upcoming budget, which will seek to close a $3.5 billion deficit, he suggested at minimum, Connecticut should cut $5 of spending for every $1 in tax increases.
