No matter who wins on Tuesday, the loser in this year’s presidential election is conventional wisdom. Nothing happened as most political practitioners and knowledgeable observers predicted. This has been evident since the end of the primary season, when Barack Obama defeated the once-inevitable nominee Hillary Clinton and John McCain won, based on seniority, in a crowded field that impressed few Republicans.
Conventional wisdom is a powerful force in politics. Once established, it is hard to uproot. It is created when journalists covering politics and their sources talk themselves into believing the same thing. In sociology, they call it groupthink; people sitting around the same table, looking at the same evidence and making similar arguments can convince each other that their perspective is the only correct one even though there may be clear and convincing evidence to the contrary – perhaps at the table in the next room.
The fact that conventional wisdom was so wrong so many times should probably make us feel good about the role of average citizens in national politics. It turns out we have a greater say in things than the media and political elite. To borrow a phrase: We are the deciders. So what did we decide?
Reagan, Kennedy Eras
On the Republican side, we decided there was only one Ronald Reagan. At the first Re publican debate, at the Reagan Library, each candidate tried to convince the audience he was the heir to Reagan’s political legacy as the 40th president’s widow sat in the front row like a judge on a TV game show. We also decided that being the mayor of New York City on Sept. 11 wasn’t good enough either.
Ten years from now, political observers may look back to 2008 as the year Republicans moved out of the Reagan era and began redefining the party. It’s not clear what that redefinition will be, but it is clear that Republican voters believe we have either won the battles Reagan led, or the passage of time has made the rest irrelevant.
On the Democratic side, it can be argued voters chose to move beyond the battles born in the 1960s that some are still fighting. The old guard that clings to the Kennedy era as the Camelot of American politics was rejected. Experience did not matter, except as a condition for dismissal from the field. Almost in order of age and time in Washington, the Democratic field was winnowed: Biden, Dodd, Richardson and finally Clinton herself.
The selection of Obama and McCain as the major party nominees says that Americans are tired of the rancid partisanship that forces elected leaders in Washington to line up against each other regardless of the merit of the idea being debated. Obama promised to reject that style of governing and McCain did so long ago, even though his motives may have more to do with personal ambition than purity.
Unity Derailed
A little noticed side show of this year’s campaign was an effort by one group to advocate for a “unity ticket.” The goal was to recruit and team up one Democrat and one Republican who would pledge to put business as usual aside to advance a nonpartisan agenda in the best interest of the country. The effort was killed by campaign finance laws that made it impossible to raise the money necessary to challenge the two-party system. Unity ticket advocates may take some comfort knowing Obama and McCain succeeded – in part – by appealing to moderates instead of the far left and right.
Despite failure, conventional wisdom never learns its lesson. The first draft of the 2012 narrative has already begun. Better luck next time.
Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.
