Coming Fashionably Late To The Party

When it comes to presidential politics, there may be something to not starting too early.

The candidates in the field today have been in the race for months. In some cases, they have been in the race since before the last one was over. There is some evidence to suggest that starting early has limited benefits with the general public.

While public opinion polls show that we are paying more attention than usual to the 2008 race, they also show no candidate, on either side, is breaking away from the pack. The advantages to starting early have mostly to do with name recognition and raising money. Candidates with name recognition to begin with, like Hillary Clinton, are considered automatic front runners. Others need to raise large sums of money to buy name recognition and their status in the pecking order.

The downside to starting early is that voters develop early fatigue for those taking part in the perpetual campaign. With less than a year to go until what is now being called Super-Duper Tuesday, there is a sense the candidates are failing to inspire. They are almost an irrelevant sideshow for most Americans.

Does this leave room for a high name I.D. candidate to ride to the rescue of the unimpressed?

Burnout

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson seem to be toying with the idea. If a presidential campaign is a marathon, rather than a sprint, maybe the smart candidates let the ambitious ones burn out before presenting themselves as fresh alternatives.

Money is the problem. Even an inspiring, competent candidate gets nowhere on looks, excitement and sound public policy alone. Bloomberg, Gingrich and Thompson however, may have the ability to overcome the money issue in different ways.

Conventional wisdom says Bloomberg has his own money and may be willing to use it, much as Ned Lamont did here in Connecticut. Presumably a Bloomberg bid for the White House would be outside the two party system so his resources could be focused on the general election. Bloomberg has a cold pragmatism about him that may not allow him to connect with voters on an emotional level.

Gingrich has the ability to appeal to a highly motivated, highly active base. Using Internet technology and the power of his sometimes out of the box ideas, he may have a long shot chance to succeed as a third party candidate. Someone willing to say what needs to be said always has an odd, if fleeting appeal, with voters. Gingrich’s ideas however are often not ready for general audiences.

Thompson has celebrity. Unlike Bloomberg and Gingrich, the sense is he cannot wait as long because his late entry would include a bid to win the Republican nomination. Celebrity can be a powerful tool, as Barack Obama has demonstrated, but like Obama it’s possible there’s nothing behind the big screen persona.

Interestingly, all three of these potential late entrants are Republicans. If any run as an independent, it would be another blow to the Republican Party in a year when the advantage would seem to be with Democrats. A Republican running as an independent would probably split the more conservative vote, handing the victory to the Democrats.

Having considered all these possibilities, any late entry would still seem to be a long shot. It would take the right combination of circumstances and a powerful candidate. Hesitation is not usually a trait of winning campaigns. Only a victory by a late entrant in 2008 will change the recent history of the continuous campaign.

Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.