Republican Tom Foley came through his victorious campaign last week over state Senate GOP Leader John McKinney with few bruises or major setbacks. McKinney was gracious in defeat and Republicans quickly gathered around the candidate they backed in 2010 who lost to Gov. Dannel P. Malloy in the closest such race in half a century.
Foley is even or ahead of Malloy in several polls and with President Obama’s approval numbers also in the dangerous mid-40’s, Republicans have the wind at their backs. But Connecticut is a Democrat state for a reason. Democrats can get the vote out and they have loyal constituencies that do not agree with Foley’s philosophy of smaller government, less spending and a reliance on the private sector to solve common problems.
Malloy will certainly strike first with a torrent of attacks against Foley with paid media, picking up where he left off four years ago by portraying the Greenwich businessman and former U.S. ambassador as a heartless plutocrat who will ignore the plight of the poor while rolling back spending on critical areas of government responsibility. Malloy will also have help from various independent political organizations that will take a similar tire iron to the skull approach to public discourse.
To buttress this narrative, Malloy is running video of a recent press conference in Sprague where Foley was heckled by local Democrats when he sought to highlight the closure of a paper mill plant and blame Malloy policies for contributing to the loss of 144 jobs.
Foley knows the bombardment is coming and will have his own message to return fire. He will argue Malloy has had his chance at government and his economic policies have been ruinous. Foley will point to a stagnant job market, record taxes and a state budget deficit that even Democrats acknowledge will be north of $1.2 billion in 2015 and beyond.
The challenger has avoided specifics on how he will manage differently aside from pledging to maintain key services and providing some tax relief. Some voters may require more details from Foley, but 2014 is essentially a debate on Malloy’s performance.
Malloy points to his generous support of education programs, his “First Five” economic initiatives that have kept large companies, like United Technologies and ESPN, firmly planted in Connecticut while making in-roads into cutting long-term pension obligations and deficits.
In his most recent ads, Malloy rightly plays to his strong suit — someone who can make a decision in a crisis. The testimonials in his ad focus on his management of recovery from various acts of nature and his support of more restrictive gun control laws — the latter a result of the deadly 2012 shooting in Sandy Hook. Malloy is pictured as stoic, solitary and full of resolve.
Malloy does have challenges with his traditional political partners. He has angered state teachers for his off-the-cuff remarks about their work ethic and some state employees believe Malloy used them as a convenient scapegoat during contract negotiations.
Those bruised ego’s aside, Malloy can win with overwhelming margins in the major cities where Democrats rule with impunity. Each city has its own challenges internally. Mayor William Finch of Bridgeport saw his state senator defeated in last week’s primary and is at odds with many rank-and-file, while in New Haven, Mayor Toni Harp has not given Democrats confidence that she can turn out the 25,000-vote plurality that her predecessor, John DeStefano, managed in 2010.
This is also the sixth year of the Obama Presidency and national generic ballot testing shows Republicans surging with Democrats waning in their enthusiasm. The largest voting block in Connecticut — unaffiliated voters — weigh their votes heavily on economic issues and here is where Foley has the greatest opportunity.
While there has been somewhat better economic growth in recent months, Connecticut is still not generating enough activity to create jobs, let alone careers, for younger workers or those professionals who have been looking in vain. Probably the most important benchmark for the state’s employed — average salaries and take home pay — have declined.
If Foley can keep his message on the economy and offer a few reasonable ideas to give voters confidence, he will be in a strong position to win. But don’t count Malloy out. No public official in Connecticut, or around the country, works harder. Malloy will offer that he might not be the most huggable executive, but he has made hard choices. In Malloy’s view, Connecticut is slowly emerging from economic calamities he inherited and did his best to rectify.
The final wild card if the race remains close is Jonathan Pelto, the former Democrat legislator from Storrs and political insider, who is awaiting certification as an independent candidate. If Pelto draws between 25,000 to 30,000 votes statewide, an overwhelming majority will come at Malloy’s expense. Pelto has demonstrated he can live off the land and connect with teachers, disaffected liberals and young voters.
Either way, voters won’t be bored. That’s all you can ask for in an election.
Christopher Healy was chairman of the Connecticut Republican Party from 2007 to 2011. He is the director of business development of Summit Financial in Simsbury.
