Connecticut has received mixed economic and fiscal news in recent weeks but the overall data paints a cloudy picture for the years ahead.
The state, like others around the country, is headed for a slow job recovery, uncertain and difficult business environment and budget problems in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. It will be up to the governor and state legislature to tackle those issues.
We’ll need a diverse set of opinions and viewpoints to confront the looming challenges. To get that we need a more divided state government, meaning Republican control of at least the House, Senate or executive branch.
One thing that is certain to make that less likely is the reelection of President Donald Trump.
No, this isn’t another anti-Trump opinion piece, though I’m no fan of the current president.
But the political realities in our deep-blue state is that Trump is extremely unpopular, and another four years of his presidency will make it harder for Republicans here to get elected for anything — be it the governor’s office or a state Senate or House seat.Â
We only have to look back two years to understand Trump’s negative influence on Connecticut’s Republican party. After eight years of an unpopular Malloy administration, which enacted two major tax increases, Republicans should have been poised to take over the executive branch and make further gains in the state legislature (the GOP in 2018 had split control of the Senate and was just four seats short of a House majority).
Instead, a blue wave swept through the state giving Democrats dominant majorities in both chambers, and the governor’s seat.Â
Of course, Republicans have a chance Nov. 3 to make inroads in the state legislature, but it’s not likely with Trump at the top of the ticket. Nate Silver’s polling tracker website FiveThirtyEight gives former Vice President Joe Biden a commanding 25-percentage point lead in Connecticut. That doesn’t bode well for Connecticut Republicans who will be listed down ballot.
It would be wise for state Republicans to focus solely on local races, yet the party’s official Twitter account has myriad pro-Trump and anti-Biden posts. I’m not sure that’s a winning long-term strategy.Â
The GOP will soon be looking ahead to the 2022 election, when Gov. Ned Lamont will be running for reelection and other key state House and Senate seats are up for grabs. Two more years of Trump in the White House won’t make him any more popular among Connecticut voters. It also won’t help Connecticut Republicans broaden local support for the party.
Meanwhile, Connecticut faces myriad challenges. A new report from UConn’s Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis says the state will struggle for a decade or longer to undo the economic damage created by the pandemic.
Meantime, the 2020 Connecticut Manufacturing Report, compiled by the Connecticut Business & Industry Association, recently painted a grim outlook for the state’s manufacturing sector, concluding the industry needs more government aid to make it through the pandemic.
The one bit of good news is that a recent surge in tax receipts has helped significantly reduce next year’s projected $2 billion budget deficit, which along with a strong rainy day fund, should help prevent an imminent tax hike.
The state’s longer-term fiscal outlook is cloudier. A lot could change depending on whether the federal government passes another round of stimulus funding, which has been held up by partisan politics ahead of the election.
That gives voters added incentive to cast their ballots Nov. 3. The future of the state and country are surely at stake.Â
