Now that the Great Recession appears over, the economy looks to be entering a Rocky Recovery, in which much of the nation will continue to struggle well into 2010.
The Associated Press’ monthly analysis of economic stress in more than 3,100 U.S. counties found the economy little changed in October compared with September. Some states saw slight improvement or stabilization, thanks to steadying foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. But the gains may be brief. Unemployment remains high, and the housing market is still weak.
“We’re not out of the woods,” said Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania.
The AP’s Economic Stress Index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on a county’s unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. Under a rough rule of thumb, a county is considered stressed when its score exceeds 11.
Nationwide, the average county’s Stress score remained unchanged at 10.1 in October, matching September’s figure. It was 10.3 in August. A year earlier, in October 2008, the average score was a much lower 6.9.
About 37 percent of the nation’s 3,141 counties were deemed stressed, roughly the same proportion as the previous month.
Nevada, where the real estate collapse struck especially hard, again had the highest statewide Stress score in October, at 21.09, though it declined from 21.95 in September.
Michigan, battered by auto industry troubles, was second-highest, with a score of 17.36, followed by California (16.48), Florida (15.4) and Arizona (14.37). All four states have suffered severe housing downturns.
North Dakota was again the least-stressed state with a score of 3.89. It was followed by South Dakota (5.14), Nebraska (5.51), Vermont (6.43) and Montana (6.64).
