Thanks to lower unemployment and fewer bankruptcies, the nation’s economic stress edged down in February as all but five states strengthened from January, according to The Associated Press’ monthly analysis.
Three states that were hit hardest by the recession and have suffered since — Florida, Arizona and Georgia — enjoyed the sharpest gains in February.
Unemployment declined or remained the same in more than three-quarters of the nation’s 3,141 counties and in 43 states, the AP’s Economic Stress Index showed. Bankruptcies declined in more than half the counties and in 41 states. Still, foreclosures rose in more than half the counties and in 27 states.
The AP’s index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. A higher score signals more economic stress.
The average county’s stress score in February was 11, down from 11.2 in January. A year ago, the average score was 11.8. Under a rough rule of thumb, a county is considered stressed when its score exceeds 11.
Economists expect further improvements this year as employers step up hiring. The unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent in March, the lowest level in two years. The rate has fallen a full percentage point in just four months.
“The job market is much better now than it has been,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Zandi predicts economic growth this year of around 3.2 percent, up from 2.9 percent last year. But his forecast has dimmed from the 3.9 percent growth he had predicted for 2011 at the start of the year, before energy prices jumped.
