🔒Amid decarbonization efforts, New England’s energy demand expected to increase 23% over next decade

New England’s energy demand is expected to increase 23% over the next decade, the head of the region’s largest power generator association said at an annual energy conference earlier this month, and stakeholders in the region should focus on energy reliability and affordability as decarbonization efforts continue.

New England Power Generators Association President Dan Dolan, during the Connecticut Business & Industry Association’s 2024 Energy & Environment Conference, gave an overview of the region’s power generation outlook, and what Northeast states need to do in the coming years as the country continues to hone in on renewable and clean energy alternatives.

He said there’s “incredible economic opportunity” in the energy sector, and investments must be made to meet the region’s future needs.

“Demand is coming — we see a really consistent rise over time,” Dolan said of energy usage over the next 10 years, which will be driven by the accelerating electrification of heating systems and transportation. “Energy efficiency is great, but we’re going to need to produce a whole lot more.”

Grid outlook

New England is responsible for 2.8% of all carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S., Dolan said, and much of the region’s energy policy is driven by decarbonization. Most of those emissions are from commercial and retail heating and transportation, he said, and “opportunistic electrification” in the transportation and heating industries can help the region continue its focus on renewable energy.

However, that will also drive up energy demand. To meet those needs, decarbonization must be a multifaceted effort, he said. While alternative energy options like solar and wind have had a lot of time in the spotlight recently, Dolan emphasized the need to continue to support existing clean energy sources like hydro and nuclear as decarbonization efforts grow over the next several years.

“We need every ounce of the clean energy that is on the planning board right now and that we expect to continue to be financed and developed, but we also need to preserve nearly all of the assets that serve as the backbone of the system,” Dolan said.

In 2023, 49% of the region’s energy supply came from natural gas, 20% nuclear, 8% hydro, 10% renewables (such as wind and solar), and 13% net imports, according to new data from ISO New England.

Notably absent from that list are coal and oil, which combined for less than 0.5% of megawatt hours in the region in 2023.

“That is a dramatic shift over the last 15 to 20 years that has created remarkable emissions benefits for the region,” Dolan said.

At the CBIA event, ISO New England’s Lead State Policy Advisor for External Affairs Kerry Schlichting gave an overview of the region’s future expected power grid breakdown. According to projections from ISO New England, the total electricity production breakdown in 2040 will be: 56% renewables; 13% nuclear; 12% natural gas; 3% hydro; and 16% imports. No electricity is expected to come from coal or oil by then, she said.

Dolan said ultimately, decarbonization needs to be a national effort, but states like Connecticut, and New England as a region, can help lead.

“I remain hugely optimistic that we are going to find our way through this, but getting to those three legs of the stool — reliability, affordability and decarbonization — we can do two out of three of those pretty directly and easily. The real challenge is doing all three at once,” Dolan said.