Marshall McLuhan said, “We look to the future through a rearview mirror.” And so it is when we consider politics in this country. Whether it be presidential campaign cycles or legislative sessions you can tell a lot about what’s next based on what just happened.
Forecasting a legislative session usually begins about a month before lawmakers return to the Capitol after their long summer’s nap. But this year, why wait? Already we’ve endured one of the longest legislative sessions on record. Yes, it ended officially in June, but the work continued into November.
Following eleven months of confusion, gridlock and pettiness the forecast for 2008 is more of the same. It is unlikely anything of note will be accomplished. The political wounds are too fresh, the emotions too raw.
The session, which begins in February, will feature three teams with competing motives and their eyes on the mid-term elections.
First, Republican legislators will be looking to rebuild their shrinking caucuses. Though their numbers have rarely been lower, many view them as the only victors of 2007. Led by House Minority Leader Larry Cafero, they have been given credit for talking the governor and majority Democrats out of a massive tax increase. It is rare for the minority party to be able to claim such a victory and with nothing to lose, Republicans will likely seek every opportunity next year to shape the agenda in the hope of offering voters a clear choice. They have no interest in helping Democrats claim victory.
Slumping Along
On the Democratic side, the leadership is feeling beaten and bruised and not at all like a super-majority. The House Speaker in particular is clearly frustrated by Gov. M. Jodi Rell, her way of doing business and her ability to come out of any confrontation looking pure regardless of the swampy path she often chooses to get there.
Democrats successfully used their super-majority to over-ride just one Rell veto and when it came to the big issue of state borrowing, they failed — by one vote — to put the governor in her place. What good is power if you can’t use it? That will be the driving motivation for many Democrats as they try to put an indelible stamp on the direction of state government. They too are hoping to carry through on a vision for state government they hope will be ratified on Election Day.
Speaking of veto over-rides, considerable Democratic energies may be devoted to punish a veteran Democrat who has served in both the House and Senate. Joan Hartley of Waterbury is the lone Democrat who prevented her party from dictating state borrowing policy to Rell when she refused to join her colleagues in an over-ride attempt. How can the Democrats expect to lead if they are wasting time disciplining their own?
The last team to consider is the Rell administration. The prolonged fight over state borrowing is just one result of her surprise attack on the fiscal conservative roots of the Republican Party she launched at the beginning of the 2007 session. When Rell proposed huge tax increases, huge spending increases and a plan to exceed the spending cap, her own camp was in shock. The effort to reclaim her Republican credentials will probably lead her to offer a low growth spending proposal in February. Nothing produces gridlock more than putting the brakes on spending.
Add to all this any remaining ill will generated by the inquiry into state Sen. Lou DeLuca and you have a recipe for legislative molasses. A rich, slow moving concoction that will have all sides stuck in place until the campaign begins in May.
Dean Pagani is a former gubernatorial advisor. He is V.P. of Public Affairs for Cashman and Katz Integrated Communications in Glastonbury.
